GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has revised its 2026 forecast for worldwide merchandise trade growth upward to 3.9 percent, marking a significant rise from the 1.9 percent predicted in March. The organization attributed this optimistic outlook to stronger trade activity in the first half of the year, adjustments in supply chains, and increased investments in artificial intelligence. Despite major disruptions impacting energy, transport, and fertilizer markets, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent in the first half of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now expects merchandise trade to expand by 4.1 percent in 2027.
During the initial half of the year, demand driven by artificial intelligence played a pivotal role in boosting merchandise trade. Goods facilitating AI, including semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of the global trade increase. Trade in these products surged 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, the WTO highlighted that global expenditures on AI infrastructure are anticipated to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The robust demand for computing hardware helped sustain trade flows amid disruptions in other sectors caused by conflicts and transportation challenges.
Supply chains worldwide also made necessary adjustments in response to pressures from key commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region dropped by 47 percent in the same period. However, increased shipments from other suppliers mitigated the decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent globally. LNG exports worldwide decreased only 1 percent. Furthermore, container throughput across the globe rose by 3.9 percent through July, as trade rerouted through alternative ports and transit corridors.
AI-enabled goods bolster global merchandise trade prospects
This brighter outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for the services sector. The WTO has lowered its 2026 forecast for services trade volume growth from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel. International tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent in the second quarter, resulting in an overall increase of only 0.4 percent for the first half of the year. Growth in travel expenditure also slowed significantly between the first and second quarters.
In contrast, other service sectors performed better despite the setbacks in travel and transport. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services rose 14 percent year-on-year in the same period. The WTO forecasts that commercial services trade volume will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027. The organization also projects global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Disparities persist in regional trade expansion
Projections for regional merchandise trade reveal considerable variation across different parts of the world. Asia is expected to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America is forecast to see a 5.7 percent growth, while Africa is anticipated to grow by 5.6 percent. South America is projected to experience a 3.4 percent rise, whereas Europe is expected to see a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the most significant contraction, with merchandise exports forecasted to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, regional import growth shows notable differences in the latest WTO outlook. Asia is projected to see merchandise import growth of 9.5 percent, with Africa close behind at 8.9 percent. North American imports are expected to increase by 1.4 percent, and Europe by 0.5 percent. Conversely, imports in the Middle East are forecast to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the recent figures demonstrate trade resilience, yet also underscore the uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical shocks across regions.