BRUSSELS, BELGIUM / RankWire.AI / – Transport costs within the European Union are projected to increase by an estimated €53 billion in 2026 due to rising road fuel prices. The estimate was published by Transport & Environment on September 23 after analyzing data from the 28 weeks ending on September 6. Their comparison involved fuel expenditures during this period against the same timeframe the previous year, adjusted for inflation. Diesel contributed roughly €40 billion of this additional expense. The calculation encompasses diesel and petrol expenditures linked to road transportation activities.
According to T&E, the surge in fuel prices resulted in an average daily increase of €270 million in EU road transport costs. Of this, diesel contributed approximately €203 million, while petrol was responsible for about €67 million. The rise has been linked to restricted refined-fuel supplies caused by the Middle East conflict and outages at Russian refineries. These disruptions widened the disparity between crude oil prices and refined products, especially diesel. Diesel and gasoil together make up approximately 43% of petroleum products used in the EU by volume.
The European Commission has separately reported notable volatility in crude oil and refined-product markets, with particular emphasis on diesel and jet fuel. Its Oil Coordination Group indicated on September 8 that there is no immediate threat to oil supply within the EU. They stated that increased EU refinery output and alternative global supplies continue to satisfy demand. Additionally, commercial and emergency oil reserves remain adequate. The Commission highlighted that ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive significant price fluctuations across global oil and petroleum markets.
Diesel expenses impact motorists and freight companies
For individual drivers, T&E estimated that the average EU diesel car owner spent about €142 more during the analysis period. By September 14, their calculations showed a €30 premium for a 50-litre diesel fill-up compared to pre-conflict levels. Long-haul trucking in Germany faced an additional weekly fuel cost of roughly €236. The analysis indicates that Europe’s roads are utilized by about 6.2 million trucks, which are also affected by rising diesel prices. These increased costs have impacted road freight operators and other commercial fuel consumers as well.
Diesel remains the primary fuel for EU transport and freight activities. According to T&E, in 2024, road transport consumed 77% of the bloc’s diesel and gasoil. Eurostat data reveal that in that year, gas and diesel oil supplied 63.2% of energy for road transport. Motor gasoline contributed 26.9%, while renewables and biofuels provided 6.2%. Electricity accounted for 0.7% of road transport energy consumption, with diesel and gasoline together representing 90.1% of total energy used in the sector.
Recent EU data highlights ongoing fuel price fluctuations
The European Commission issued its Weekly Oil Bulletin on September 24, providing updated consumer petroleum prices across EU nations. This publication tracks weekly price changes, both including and excluding taxes, and maintains a historical dataset dating back to 2005. The update followed the conclusion of the T&E study period on September 6. The Commission gathers national price data and regularly publishes comparative analyses among member states. Its September 8 supply review identified diesel and jet fuel among the products experiencing notable price volatility.
The €53 billion figure from T&E remains an estimate based on the environmental group’s analysis rather than an official EU figure. It estimates the additional road fuel expenditure over the 28-week period in 2026. The report also examines the impact on passenger vehicles and commercial transportation, with diesel accounting for most of the projected increase. T&E advocates for measures aimed at reducing diesel demand and promoting vehicle electrification. Meanwhile, official EU data continue to monitor fuel prices, supply conditions, and petroleum use across the bloc.