MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia is targeting an increase in its yearly vehicle output to approximately 2.8 million units by the year 2035, as part of its refreshed automotive sector strategy. During a meeting on Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced this goal, which encompasses both domestically sold and exported vehicles. The plan also aims for 80% of new vehicle sales in Russia to be locally manufactured by 2035.
On Aug. 24, the Russian government approved the updated automotive development plan, extending the industry’s strategic framework through 2035. At the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle production capacity was around 3.3 million units annually, while actual output that year was close to 800,000. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles. Truck production capacity reached 35%, and bus capacity was at 43%.
The projected scenario envisions producing about 2.5 million passenger cars, including passenger vehicles, along with roughly 170,000 light commercial units by 2035. The plan also anticipates manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger vehicle production is assigned to four or five different vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicle production would rely on one or two. The overall new-vehicle market in 2035 is projected to total about 3.2 million units, with imports potentially accounting for as much as 20% of that market.
Production targets encompass all vehicle categories
A secondary scenario provides a more conservative outlook with lower production and market figures. Under this model, vehicle output in 2035 would reach approximately 1.69 million units, with the new-vehicle market estimated at around 2.2 million units. For 2030, the more optimistic target scenario estimates about 2.4 million new vehicles sold, whereas the conservative scenario projects a market size of roughly 2 million units across all segments.
The updated framework emphasizes powertrain and technological objectives as well. It predicts that internal-combustion engines will comprise between 67% and 83% of vehicle production in 2035, depending on the segment. Meanwhile, electric and hybrid passenger cars are expected to constitute at least 25% of Russia’s new passenger-car market by that year. Additionally, the strategy aspires to produce approximately 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher by 2035, alongside the development of driver-assistance and digital vehicle systems.
Manufacturing capacity and localization goals remain crucial
The existing manufacturing infrastructure in Russia significantly exceeds its recent annual output. By 2025, passenger-car capacity was around 2.8 million units, with actual production near 700,000 units. The capacity for light commercial vehicles was about 300,000 units, while output was close to 80,000. Truck capacity totaled roughly 130,000 units, and bus capacity was near 30,000. The country also produced about 4,400 electric powertrain vehicles in 2025, slightly up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy advocates for a broader adoption of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms until 2035. It also sets more ambitious targets for localization and technological independence for domestically assembled vehicles. The comprehensive plan covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technology. The ultimate goal combines the 2.8 million annual production target with the objective of an 80% share for vehicles produced locally. An action plan to implement these measures will be developed as part of the order that sanctioned the updated strategy.
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