ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization forecasts global cereal output for 2026 at 2.98 billion tonnes, reflecting a 2% decrease compared to the previous year’s record. Despite this reduction, it remains the second-largest harvest ever recorded. The latest estimate falls 3.4 million tonnes short of the July projection. This annual decrease of 61.1 million tonnes marks the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
According to FAO, maize production is projected at 1.309 billion tonnes, following diminished crop prospects that lowered earlier estimates. The effects of prolonged summer heat and dryness negatively impacted yields across key European Union farming regions, notably France and Poland. Adjustments based on official data also led to smaller downward revisions for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, which will contribute to their well-above-average maize production in 2026.
Forecasts for wheat output have increased to 810.7 million tonnes, a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from prior estimates. Improved yield expectations in Canada and Morocco contributed roughly 1.5 million tonnes each to this upward revision. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine saw an increase, although dry weather conditions reduced the outlook for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite the upward adjustment, global wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% lower than in 2025 and will rank as the second-largest crop on record.
Maize setbacks lead to an overall reduction in global cereal forecasts
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes (milled basis), indicating a 1.9% decline from the revised record set in 2025/26. The latest figure benefits from Myanmar’s updated data and strong yields from main rice crops in Sri Lanka. These positive factors counterbalance the reductions seen in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
FAO projects total global cereal consumption at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, representing a slight increase of 0.2% over the previous season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to rise, while wheat use is forecast to decrease from the high levels of last season. World rice utilization is projected at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed consumption remains significant, including barley usage in China and maize in the United States.
Stock levels remain comfortable despite recent declines
Forecasts indicate that global cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 seasons will total 947.2 million tonnes, which is 10.7 million tonnes lower than previous estimates but 1.8 million tonnes higher than opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio for cereals worldwide is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below last season’s 31.9%. Wheat reserves are expected to grow in Russia and Ukraine, whereas decreased maize and barley stocks have tempered the overall outlook for cereal inventories.
International trade in cereals for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from the earlier forecast. Nonetheless, this total remains below the record high recorded in 2025/26. The rise is mainly driven by stronger maize trade, with Argentina expected to export up to 39 million tonnes. Meanwhile, global rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes, with overall rice shipments slightly below the 2025 record by 1.9%.