MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a long-term objective of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by the year 2050 as part of a newly endorsed industry development strategy. This target is incorporated within Russia’s revised coal growth blueprint. In 2024, coal output was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government approved this plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, which sets out the industry’s future production, export, and development benchmarks.
The strategy presents four potential trajectories for the coal sector up to 2050. In the primary scenario, production is projected to reach 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and 595.2 million tonnes by 2036. It then advances to 662 million tonnes by 2050. The remaining scenarios forecast lower production levels for 2050, with figures ranging from 318.9 million tonnes under the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes under the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, the plan sets export targets. Under the main scenario, coal exports are projected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reaching 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% in the first eight months of 2026. The programme accounts for both domestic consumption and global sales.
Goals for Production and Export Volumes
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding access to additional coal reserves. It also aims to increase the contribution of coal-producing regions such as Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. Their combined output share was 48.3% in 2024, with projections to expand that share to between 53.9% and 56.7% by 2050. Russia reports holding more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
Further, the strategy establishes targets for coal processing and extraction techniques. In 2024, the share of processed coal, excluding lignite, was 58.9%. The plan aims to elevate this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining contributed to 78.4% of total production in 2024, with the long-term target set between 82% and 85%. The document also addresses goals related to productivity, technological advancement, safety standards, and environmental protections.
Coal Industry Strategy Extends to 2050
Russia will implement the strategy across three phases. The first phase, ending in 2030, focuses on boosting production and supporting the industry’s growth. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, concentrates on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistics. The final phase, from 2037 to 2050, covers the full realization of the long-term goals. The Energy Ministry will oversee progress through regular reports from federal, regional authorities, and involved organizations, with annual updates submitted to the Ministry of Economic Development under government directive.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the updated programme during a government session on September 21. This document replaces Russia’s previous coal industry programme through 2035, which was approved in 2020. Novak highlighted that the plan envisions a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The goal of 662 million tonnes remains the primary target scenario rather than a definitive forecast.